[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN
47W AND 56W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 16W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT
IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THIS WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN
60W AND 63W EAST OF THE WAVE IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N58W TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W AND 11N62W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LAST
MAP ANALYSIS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AT ALL IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS NEAR THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 9N22W 9N37W 11N49W 11N53W 10N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W AROUND
09/1415 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. AFTERNOON
HEATING IN COASTAL AREAS HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL GUYANA
BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...AND IN VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
62W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN END
OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH GOES FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOW MOSTLY
JUST EAST OF 90W...WITH THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE GULF
WATERS. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N77W...26N81W IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO 25N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 25N88W TO
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 69W...
FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
WESTERN PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CLUSTERS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 82W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W EAST OF
THE 64W/65W TROPICAL WAVE...IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N58W TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W AND 11N62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW IS NEAR
32N77W. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 70W.
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH ARE THE
DRIVING FORCES FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 30N77W TO SOUTH
FLORIDA TO 25N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 31N62W 26N67W 23N70W. THIS TROUGH HAS REMAINED ON THE
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR THE LAST MANY DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH...ALONG
21N74W 24N70W 27N68W BEYOND 32N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...AND FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE SPECIFICALLY FROM 29N TO 32N
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH
STARTS OUT NEAR 26N54W 23N57W TO 21N58W TO 19N59W TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 30N30W TO 24N29W TO 12N33W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
31N30W TO 30N36W TO 33N43W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT.

$$
MT




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