[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
15N-22N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
STRUCTURE IS OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR. THUS...NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N31W 10N46W 9N56W 11N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-48W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
23W-39W AND FROM 48W-55W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 12W-35W AND FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE S GULF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGES ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC AND A SECOND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE W GULF DRY
AIR WHILE THE SE GULF IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE N GULF
WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 26N92W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO THE NE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF A
LINE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W ALONG 24N87W ACROSS S
FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W WHILE THE W GULF HAS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE NE GULF IS ENJOYING RATHER CLEAR SKIES AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER PANAMA
EXTENDING N OVER W CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 69W WHILE AT THE LOWER LEVELS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 12N80W ALONG 17N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N85W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS GIVING
THE AREA W OF 75W ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE 15N77W TO OVER CUBA NEAR
22N83W. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR EXCEPT THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N79W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N79W S ALONG 29N79W THE W ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW
COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 67W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 21N55W SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLC OVER CUTTING THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH THE AXIS ALONG 50W
AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 30W-62W. NARROW INDUCED TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE ATLC WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING W AFRICA
EXTENDING INTO THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W. THIS IS COMBINED TO KEEP
MOST OF THE ATLC DRY AND SHOWER FREE. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
FROM 50 TO 90 KT EXTENDS FROM 21N50W SE ALONG 14N32W THE NNE
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS INTO NW AFRICA. THIS IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...
SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

$$
WALLACE




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