[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N
TO 19N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 16W
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

AN EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CUT
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W...INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
11N16W 10N24W 10N37W 9N43W 8N50W 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN
20W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 67W...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN
CUBA. DRY AIR IS WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM NORTH OF 32N68W 25N75W
24N84W 29N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM 28N TO 29N...
AND FROM 30N TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.
A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST. A COLD FRONT GOES
FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA JUST OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF
BERMUDA TO 30N67W TO 26N70W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
25N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W...INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...FROM A WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND FROM 60 TO 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. OTHER PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INCLUDES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W
AND 81W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N64W TO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE AREA
OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH...EAST OF 70W INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VENEZUELA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 67W.
DRY AIR IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS RIDGE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W
AND 63W. A SURFACE 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N50W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 30W AND
61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 59W AND
70W...POSSIBLY ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE BERMUDA-TO-22N73W
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
10N58W EAST OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 18N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W...PROBABLY ENHANCED
BY SOME FORM OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE MOMENT. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF THE ITCZ NEAR
10N60W NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH 20N30W...AND NORTHEASTWARD TO
A RIDGE IN CENTRAL MOROCCO. MORE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 60W.

$$
MT


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