[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N68W.
A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 30N68W 24N70W TO 22N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N69W 24N70W 23N72W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N67W 26N64W 31N63W BEYOND 33N62W.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 25N97W TO 22N96W TO LAND
NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
91W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
25N WEST OF 94W. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
32W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION...FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 50W AND 59W...AND FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.

A WEAK EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF
23N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH
OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS NORTH OF 22N.

...THE ITCZ...
11N13W 9N23W 10N33W 11N39W 8N45W 10N54W 10N58W 10N62W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N
TO 10N EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WATERS NORTH OF 22N. CLOUDY SKIES WITH PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N78W ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH
A A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO WESTERN
VENEZUELA. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MINIMAL CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE REGIONS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS WILL
BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LIES ACROSS CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH
IS LOCATED NEAR 28N60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND
32N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS SHARP RIDGE IS SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS RELATED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
ALONG 27N33W 20N50W 22N60W WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
CENTERS. THE AREA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 40W-60W IS UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC EAST OF 60W WITH
A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N486W.

$$
MT







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