[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH MOST WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 15N FROM 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS S OF AN
UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 45W-50W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10-14N BETWEEN 44W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN THE AREA OF DRY AIR LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE PREVIOUSLY NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW MASKED BY HIGH CLOUDS. WAVE WAVE IS
BENEATH RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 12N81W...WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
13N81W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W...AND WITHIN 60 NM
OF 19.5N FROM 77W-82W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 6N34W 11N62W ACROSS THE N
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
NEAR 10N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-36W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS E OF 18W TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 22W-31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 19W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NW TO THE
COAST OF TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI COVERING THE GULF S OF 27N. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W
N TO 25N96W. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA GIVING THE SW GULF S OF 26W W OF 92W
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE SE US COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N FROM 82W-88W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MAINLY UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 15N83W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N FROM 59W-64W DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ
AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM SE GEORGIA TO
HISPANIOLA COVERING THE AREA W OF 70W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N71W ACROSS THE S
BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 30N71W AT 06/0900 UTC. AN UPPER
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N64W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO
BEYOND 32N62W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS SHARP RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120/150
NM OF LINE FROM 22N71W TO 32N47W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N23W SW ALONG 21N45W TO 19N52W. THE AREA FROM
18N-30N BETWEEN 40W-60W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
17N27W NNE TO BEYOND 32N14W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
AND PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE N GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 20N32W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.
AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N30W TO 20N34W.

$$
WALLACE



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