[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
A BROAD AREA FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 16W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 16N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ON
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS
MASKED BY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH THE BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA OF DRY AIR
LIMITING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 43W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE IS ONCE AGAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AN THE AREA OF DRY AIR
LIMITING SHOWERS ACTIVITY WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N20W 4N32W 10N43W 10N55W
9N62W ACROSS THE SOUTH AMERICA TO A 1005 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST
OF PANAMA NEAR 9N82W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 11W-26W AN FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 26W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE E TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST INTO
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING THE GULF W OF 95W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
COVER THE N GULF WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N95W TO
S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. THIS COMBINATION CONTINUES TO ADVECT AN
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA GIVING THE GULF S
OF 26N W OF 85W CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER SHOWER FREE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS SSE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER HAITI TO 13N73W WEDGED BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 63W. THIS IS
GIVING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 65W AND W OF 78W SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST S INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 32N79W ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N74W
W OF 70W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST
TO THE E ALONG 31N69W S TO OVER THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 77W
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO BEYOND 32N64W. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 32N
BETWEEN 64W-77W. A SECOND INDUCED UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
25N52W BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 32N31W SW TO 19N46W. THE AREA FROM 14N-30N BETWEEN 40W-63W
IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...THUS VERY LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N34W ALONG 25N36W TO 21N43W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
TROPICS NEAR 13N28W N TO BEYOND 32N18W PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE
N AND GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE 21N31W TO BEYOND 32N26W.

$$
WALLACE





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