[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ON THE
WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND BROAD
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS ON
THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTER
SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 34W-39W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 16N40W-19N35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH DRY
AIR SO THERE ARE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE IS
ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS WEAK IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 4N26W 10N49W 7N60W ACROSS THE
SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 13N-18N E OF 20W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 12W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E/CENTRAL TEXAS AND JUST OFF THE
E COAST OF MEXICO INCLUDING THE GULF W OF 93W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/W YUCATAN OVER THE GULF OVER
THE E US COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS COMBINATION IS
ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
GIVING MOST OF THE GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR E GULF N OF 25N E OF 86W WHERE CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG FROM 27N94W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE CARIBBEAN
TO 13N FROM HISPANIOLA TO 85W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W. THIS IS GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 74W84W WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
FROM 71W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W SW ALONG 27N67W TO OVER
THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 70W-80W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ALONG 23N65W THEN NE BEYOND
32N56W. THIS IS GIVING THE AREA FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 61W-67W
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND INDUCED UPPER
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N50W BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N34W SW TO 18N43W. THE AREA
FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 42W-60W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR...THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF 1015
MB LOWS ARE CENTERED NEAR 28N36W AND 32N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 27N35W-33N32W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE HAS AGAIN SET UP ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA TO
WELL N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE





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