[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 10 KT.
ONLY SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WITH
THIS WAVE. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS...MAINLY S OF 8N...WITH PERSISTENT SW TO W SHEAR OVER THE
AREA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 6N44W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 175 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
31W-40W. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE NEAR THE ATLC
PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BETWEEN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S...AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE NW
BAHAMAS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NW GULF...WITH
ABOUT A 30 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT NOTED AROUND THE BOUNDARY. LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE
FAR NW GULF OFF OF S/CENTRAL TEXAS WITH FRONT. AHEAD OF
FRONT...FRESH SE/S FLOW CONTINUES AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTERACTS THE SW PORTION OF A STRONG HIGH IN THE ATLC. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO BEING ADVECTED N THROUGH THE MIDDLE GULF WITH THIS
FLOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 84W-92W. SIMILAR QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS/LOWER CLOUDS NOTED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT FOR NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN WRN GULF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE INTO SAT WITH THE FRONT
STALLING BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND THE YUCATAN...THOUGH SECONDARY
PUSH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS/SEAS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON AND
KICK THROUGH FRONT FURTHER SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER E TO SE FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE. NARROW...ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS PRODUCING MOSTLY WLY UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF 14N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...WHICH
SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONFLUENCE AND SOME UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE SAME REASONING MAY BE CAUSING THE SMALLER SCALE
ACTIVITY JUST S OF WRN CUBA. STRONG ATLC SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BUILT INTO THE AREA...WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE RELAXING SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE
ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
JUST N OF THE AREA IN THE WRN ATLC HAS FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO SE
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 40W. THIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
MODERATE TO STRONG SWELL THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THIS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND RELAX INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG
SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NE TO THE E OF THE
AXIS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 31W AND
45W. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N29W 18N46W. ERN
ATLC DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
SW EUROPE. UPPER WLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP
TROPICS S OF 14N.

$$
WILLIS


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