[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SHOWERS TO THE E OF
THIS WAVE ARE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND NOT THE TROPICAL
WAVE ITSELF.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N21W 7N42W 5N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 28W-42W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N FROM 36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO N MEXICO
IS APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE GULF LATER TODAY PRODUCING GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AT THIS TIME AND IS
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AND STRONG SE WINDS COVER THE GULF. ISOLATED
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF
AS RESULT OF THIS SURFACE FLOW. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE E
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE
W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 15N W
OF 70W. THIS IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY UPPER AIR AND UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 15N61W TO 13N78W...THUS
UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC.
THE AREA N OF 14N E OF 70W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 79W AND THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 79W AND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 65W EXTENDING OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN AND ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE SAME AREA. STRONG SURFACE WINDS COVER THE AREA GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W
ALONG THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W TO 30N79W AND ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA COVERS
CENTRAL AND W ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N46W S ALONG 20N54W THEN WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N30W SSW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 18N47W
WITH A SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
REGION. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 25N22W AND EXTENDS TO WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. STRONG
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO 130 KT EXTENDS FROM 20N48W NNE
TO BEYOND 32N38W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE COUPLED WITH
THE JETSTREAM ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N...GENERATING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
18N50W TO BEYOND 32N34W. OVER THE TROPICS...AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 5N24W NW TO NEAR 15N46W. A
SECOND WEAKER JETSTREAM EXTENDS AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPIC UPPER RIDGE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO 90 KT FROM 15N38W
ALONG 11N21W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 13N16W. A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N16W SSW TO NEAR 16N35W.

$$
WALLACE





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