[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
38W-43W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 34W-41W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 9N43W 5N55W.  OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING SELY SURFACE WINDS OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A PATCH OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-93W.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER FLORIDA.  A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER ERN OKLAHOMA
AND NW TEXAS MOVING SE.  A 30-35 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS
NOTED ACROSS THE FRONT WITH CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W
PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  A JETSTREAM WITH MOISTURE EXTENDS INLAND FROM N
MEXICO TO E OKLAHOMA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LINE 25N108W 34N95W.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PLUNGE INTO THE NW GULF THURSDAY AND
EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT...AND GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER E...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 74W-78W.  BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 60W-65W.  SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W
IS PRODUCING ELY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N AND W OF 60W.  THE SE CARIBBEAN AND NRN VENEZUELA S OF
16N HAS UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE.  EXPECT
TROPICAL SHOWERS OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN...NRN SOUTH AMERICA
...AND CENTRAL AMERICA... S OF 15N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
NEAR 43N76W.  ELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 50W-80W DUE TO THE BASE OF THE HIGH.  A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W 15N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1036 MB HIGH IS OVER FRANCE NEAR 48N4W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW
TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N25W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A
BROAD RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA




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