[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N39W 12N41W 5N42W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WE STUDIED THE RAWINSONDE DATA FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WIND SHIFT FROM 700 MB TO
600 MB FROM A FEW DAYS AGO SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE WAVE
PASSED THROUGH THERE. CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.

...THE ITCZ...
11N14W 6N29W 7N39W 9N43W 6N50W 5N57W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 38W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GUYANA/SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
STILL COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS TOWARD
MISSOURI. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND SET TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW. IT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SATURDAY. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALSO IN THE GULF
WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N56W TO 18N63W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS...TO 15N71W TO 14N78W...TOWARD 15N84W NEAR
THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO
15N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTLINE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N46W TO 26N51W TO 20N56W
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH 18N63W. AN UPPER
LEVEL WIND MAXIMA/JET STREAM IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 12N68W...AND GOES TO 13N63W 16N55W AND 24N45W...AND THEN
IS WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N43W BEYOND 32N36W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 19N26W TO 27N24W BEYOND 32N23W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W
AND 37W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS ALONG THE MOROCCO COAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
MT




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