[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282304
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N30W 3N53W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-26W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 26W-40W...
AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N72W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
22N97W.  E TO SE 10-15 KT SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.   JETSTREAM WITH MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM  CENTRAL MEXICO TO LOUISIANA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LINE 18N103W 32N91W.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 80W-85W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.  SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO
FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
CENTER.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-83W.  EXPECT TROPICAL SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN...NRN SOUTH AMERICA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA... S OF 15N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N72W.  A 996 MB GALE LOW IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N42W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N41W 24N50W 20N60W.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SW TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E
OF THE FRONTS.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR
39N15W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO 22N30W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 18N W OF
70W DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
55W-70W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-55W.  WLY FLOW
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 10W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA




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