[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N11W 7N20W 7N30W 5N42W 4N50W 3N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND WITHIN 120 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE AXIS WEST OF 40W. THE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W FROM NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA
TO TRINIDAD ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF ONSHORE TRADEWIND FLOW
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTER BEYOND 34N78W.
DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO NEAR
20N100W...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...BEYOND LOUISIANA.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DROPPING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N80W...AND MAYBE EVEN THE BORDER OF EASTERN
HONDURAS/NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N50W TO 20N60W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
GOES FROM 20N60W TO 19N65W JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...TO THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W...LEADING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
25N62W 22N70W 21N77W 19N80W 18N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 15N83W 12N80W
11N76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W
AND 82W HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS AS THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY. THIS MAY BE
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N60W THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N50W TO 20N60W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 20N60W TO 19N65W JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER  SIDE OF 20N63W 23N55W 27N45W BEYOND 32N40W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N48W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO. ONE POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 75 NM NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 17N35W.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net