[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250331 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006

COR FOR HEADER FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE
32N63W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 7N20W 6N31W 8N40W 10N46W 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
38W AND 43W...FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W...AND FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...
SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND NORTH OF 2N EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF THE
32N63W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS 33N73W TO 27N74W...STILL IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM
COASTAL GEORGIA TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL/
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWARD ALONG 90W TO
ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N80W 25N90W. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 31N65W TO 23N70W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N57W 13N59W 8N59W IN NORTHERN
COASTAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N56W
15N58W 12N59W. THIS PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY MAY REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE TROUGH MOVES MORE AND MORE
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALSO IS IN PLACE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS
FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 14N77W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND BEYOND 22N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 11N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF
11N73W IS DISSIPATING FROM 10N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N56W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF
THE 32N63W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N57W 13N59W 8N59W IN NORTHERN
COASTAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N56W
15N58W 12N59W. THIS PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY MAY REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE TROUGH MOVES MORE AND MORE WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO PASSES
THROUGH 32N63W TO 26N64W TO 22N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N56W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...
ALONG 13N51W 20N50W 28N52W 32N54W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 27N24W
19N27W 10N29W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

$$
MT


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