[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 8N40W 10N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
4N-5N BETWEEN 11W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 28W-42W...AND FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN 42W-54W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 58W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W.  5-10
KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF
26N. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N AND OVER
FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA ALONG 20N74W 17N78W 11N79W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1006 MB
SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
77W-81W.  FURTHER W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 81W MOVING
S.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN N OF 10N AND W OF 81W.  FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO
DRIFT W OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.   A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DRIFT W OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.
LASTLY...MORE CONVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
DUE TO AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG 59W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM BERMUDA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 32N65W 20N74W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 41N46W.  MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW IS
FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 15W-60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N56W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 17N-32N BETWEEN 50W-62W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 30W.  A JETSTREAM IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LINE 15N20W 22N5W.

$$
FORMOSA






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