[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N21W 6N35W 11N47W 9N57W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 28W-42W AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 41W-55W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 75 NM OF 4.5N E OF 20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE E US AND GULF OF
MEXICO COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W WITH THE REMAINDER
IN THE W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE FAR SE GULF.
VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF WHILE THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF
THE US INTO THE GULF. SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE S GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REMAINS CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS W CUBA
INTO THE SW ATLC/SE GULF. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING TO DRAW NW AS A WARM
FRONT ALONG 16N78W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL PANAMA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 14N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 75W-81W AND WITHIN 150/200 NM
E OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT TO 83W WITH STRONG
NLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN AND N VENEZUELA E OF 70W. DRY UPPER AIR AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF
80W AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH 32N75W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N67W S TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E
OF THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. A CUT-OFF UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE S/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N58W S INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE THUS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS. ELONGATED MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 31N46W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE/NW. A STRONG
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA INTO THE NE ATLC
THROUGH 25N14W SW ALONG 16N30W. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLC WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 3N46W NNW TO 24N53W AND A SECOND
RIDGE AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE
COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG 58W FROM 8N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
8N-23N BETWEEN 54W-60W AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

$$
WALLACE





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