[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240506
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N22W 6N42W 5N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 26W-30W AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 30W-53W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 7W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE E US AND GULF OF
MEXICO COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 88W WITH THE REMAINDER
IN THE W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO N OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE SE GULF. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE GULF
WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE S
GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS W
CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO CUBA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING S
TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF E PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE
FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI. MOSTLY OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
THE FRONT TO 83W WITH STRONG NLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND N VENEZUELA E
OF 72W. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 80W AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N E OF 69W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH 32N75W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N79W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N67W S TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 22N FROM 70W-74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT. ELONGATED MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ESE/WNW. STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC
THROUGH 32N11W SW ALONG 20N25W THEN WNW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
22N60W THEN S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THUS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ATLC WITHIN 300/350 NM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 8N47W NW TO 20N52W AND A SECOND RIDGE
AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS
MUCH OF THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
57W FROM 8N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-16N
BETWEEN 55W-60W AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
WALLACE




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