[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 6N24W 7N40W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 36W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W...AND FROM
8N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 2W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF NEW JERSEY...THROUGH 31N77W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND POSSIBLY A BIT INTO THE EAST CENTRAL WATERS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD SOUTH OF 31N WEST OF 70W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 24N.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W
BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF
24N WEST OF 90W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS INTO TEXAS EAST OF 100W BEYOND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
WATERS STRAIGHT SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...AND
THEN IT CUTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W
IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALSO IS IN PLACE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM
PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 14N76W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
BEYOND 22N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 10N78W TO 16N76W
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 30N68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N59W TO
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N62W
INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W...AND
FROM PANAMA TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N59W TO AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N62W INTO CENTRAL
VENEZUELA. A SHEAR AXIS GOES FROM 17N30W TO 23N44W TO 25N52W.
THIS AREA IS BEING STRETCHED...IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH...AND THE 22N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 15N32W 20N47W...AND
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 66W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM A REMNANT EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 25N17W TO 21N26W TO 16N27W TO 12N25W. 27W TO 25N37W
TO 24N46W TO 22N58W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAINT
LUCIA AND FINALLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 65W. A 1018 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N33W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 28N34W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF CLOUDS AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO
27N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE
ITCZ IN THE DEEP TROPICS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N EAST OF
52W ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net