[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N24W 4N35W 6N50W 5N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
2.5N FROM 33W-40W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N45W-8N40W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N FROM 28W-40W AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN
40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ALONG
THE COAST NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO W CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC AND
CARIBBEAN. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 93W. VERY DRY
UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE
GULF WITH A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST
NEAR 27N93W. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE S GULF...THICKEST OVER THE SE S OF 28N E OF 89W
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS W CUBA TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF E PANAMA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 13N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N FROM 70W-78W MOSTLY OVER JAMAICA AND
HAITI. MOSTLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO FILTER S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NLY WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N65W COVERING THE AREA
E OF 70W GIVING THE AREA S OF 17N FROM 57W-62W SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE W AND E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ALONG
THE COAST NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER THROUGH 32N75W
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N69W S TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND SURGE IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS THE FAR N BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT.
MOSTLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER
S OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W. STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OVER THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N15W SW ALONG 23N29W THEN W TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 21N56W THUS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W-67W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 20N WITH A JETSTREAM ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 70-90 KT E OF 55W TO OVER AFRICA. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 26N52W TO 13N55W.

$$
WALLACE




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