[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 7N46W 5N54W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 26N-48N.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO W
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST TO
TEXAS. VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVER THE GULF WITH A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N93W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER THE S GULF...THICKEST OVER THE SE S OF 27N E OF 88W WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS W CUBA TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE COAST
OF E PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-79W
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. BROKEN/OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO FILTER S OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N63W COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W GIVING THE
LESSER ANTILLES SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W AND E
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS COAST THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC
NEAR 32N66W S TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
FILTER S OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N57W. STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W SW ALONG 24N34W TO AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N54W THUS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W-67W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 20N WITH S JETSTREAM ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 70-90 KT E OF 50W TO OVER AFRICA. AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 29N31W TO 20N35W.

$$
WALLACE





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