[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 8N20W 8N33W 6N46W 7N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE LOCATED FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W....
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 31N81W JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST...
AND NEARLY DUE EAST OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
FLORIDA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
40'S IN FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING TODAY. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE COURTESY OF
ANOTHER BLAST OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DEPARTED FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N77W TO 26N71W TO NORTHEASTERN HAITI.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N72W 26N69W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO HAITI...AND
BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS ARE
MOVING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HAITI FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 13N73W AND 13N76W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO 17N76W 14N77W TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
THE 27N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N46W TO 20N56W TO
THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 20N57W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 65W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N21W 23N24W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
23N TO 31N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP
OF THE ITCZ IN THE DEEP TROPICS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N
EAST OF 52W ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA.

$$
MT


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