[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE. THE WAVE CUTS
THROUGH HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE OVER THE
WATERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N78W 15N80W
12N82W...AND FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N10W 7N20W 5N30W 5N40W 5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM
2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TEXAS NEAR LAREDO
TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA...
TO THE BORDERS OF EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS/GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD
INTO ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS
MOVING THROUGH THE PRE-EXISTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WHOSE BASE REACHES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF WATERS UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR 14N75W...TO 16N77W
TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN 84W/85W
TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 19N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE OVER THE WATERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N78W 15N80W 12N82W...AND FROM
18N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH IS SOUTH OF
15N EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH WHOSE BASE REACHES INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N74W BEYOND 32N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS
THIS SAME PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING MOISTURE THAT IS TRAVERSING THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS REACHED THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SOUTH OF 32N WEST OF
70W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE COLD AIR TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS...GOES FROM 30N64W TO 25N69W TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 25N68W 31N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 20N69W
BEYOND 30N57W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N47W TO 19N48W 13N51W TO
8N55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 31N47W 27N49W 25N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N
TO 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N51W
15N55W 9N58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 26N22W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 13N
BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 26W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
22W AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N25W TO 6N39W TO 7N53W.
HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 5W AND 50W ARE CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA.

$$
MT




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