[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW IS
GOING TO BECOME STATIONARY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER
HIGH COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN THUS MASKING ANY TRUE SATELLITE SIGNATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N21W 6N39W 4N52W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 16W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR HAS
MOVED SE ACROSS THE GULF WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO OVERRUN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR
26N92W. THE DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N
GULF WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO
FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF
SW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE GULF
LEAVING THE GULF RELATIVELY SHOWER FEW THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER THE AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 75W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N FROM
69W-75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINING
CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 65W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION OVER BERMUDA
NEAR 32N65W EXTENDING ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR
20N75W. THE DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND
32N60W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150/175 NM OF A LINE FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO
28N66W. NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N50W S ALONG
25N50W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH...
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...EXTENDS FROM 24N52W
19N52W TO 14N54W THUS WEAKENING THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1018 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 26N56W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS
NEAR 14N42W N TO BEYOND 32N44W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N FROM 45W-52W. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS E OF 38W WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N25W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM
19N-30N BETWEEN 18W-26W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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