[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 58W IS RELOCATED
ALONG 56W/57W BASED ON SURFACE DATA. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS IS AN ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE AND MAY
BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
77W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM 11N-13N AND NEAR 9N80W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS MORNING WEST OF 22W. ITS AXIS
IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N25W 5N35W 5N45W 2N50W. PATCHES OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 22W-37W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO THIS AREA STARTING THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER COOL
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES OF U.S. INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
GULF EXCEPT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM T.S. SERGIO
LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH A FEW
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF 25N. THE GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE W
ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS LOW
PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN
STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
SOME SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
A FRONTAL TROUGH. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH
OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N69W
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER EASTERN CUBA. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
W-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 31N58W. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW
FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N54W TO THE TROPICS NEAR
15N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO A 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR 22N50W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR
16N53W. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL
SHOWING A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE
LOW. ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 22N50W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW
COVERING FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A SECOND NARROW UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 40W/41W. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N23W. CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
21W-28W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC.

$$
GR







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