[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W CARIBBEAN THUS MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
81W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 7N25W 5N35W 5N45W 2N52W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 27W-35W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N EAST OF 20W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND SURGE OF
COLD AIR IS APPROACHING THE GULF CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. AND
WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO THE GULF WATERS
STARTING THIS MORNING. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM T.S.
SERGIO LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF SW
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES OVER THE GULF. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE W ATLC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS LOW PRESSURE AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STATE
OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANCHORED BY
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER HISPANIOLA. A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N78W EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A
FRONTAL TROUGH. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W. THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER EASTERN CUBA. NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N64W. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW FROM AN
UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N55W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N53W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N50W TO 18N52W. LATEST NIGHT
CHANNEL VIS IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 22N50W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COVERING FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 44W-50W. A SECOND NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 40W/41W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N22W.
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SE OF THE UPPER
LOW FROM 25N-32N EAST OF 28W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
AFFECTING THE CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC.

$$
GR




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