[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 182253
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W CARIBBEAN THUS MASKING
ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N21W 6N31W 5N53W ACROSS
SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 27W-38W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 12W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 8W-17W AND FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
34W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR
IS APPROACHING THE GULF CURRENTLY OVER THE SE US. DRY UPPER AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO FROM A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF SW
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES OVER THE GULF LEAVING THE GULF SHOWER FEW THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER W CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 64W. A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
10N-22N BETWEEN 76W-87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
65W-76W WITH THE SE CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N69W
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL CUBA. NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO BEYOND 32N64W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250/275 NM E OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N56W SSE TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW NEAR
25N52W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N53W. THIS UPPER TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS
JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N61W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND SE
TO 28N57W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY AN EXTENSION
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS FROM 26N52W TO 18N55W. A SECOND
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 19N42W NNW TO
BEYOND 32N49W. ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE FROM 20N46W TO BEYOND
32N49W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 21N E OF 38W WITH
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N22W. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A
RIDGE COVERS THE SAME AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
SURROUNDING THE UPPER LOW N OF 25N FROM 18W-28W.

$$
WALLACE





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