[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF
21N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N20W 6N40W 5N55W 6N60W.
THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE E OF 50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 6W-10W...AND FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEAR
43N98W.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  WINDS ARE NLY AT 5-10 KT.  NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED.  TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 57 F OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 73 F OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 84W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N WHERE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  EXPECT
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF N OF 20N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MOSTLY NLY SURFACE WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  SEE ABOVE.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 22N78W 19N81W 14N83W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 78W-86W.  AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  EXPECT THE FRONT
TO STAY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 22N78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT.  A
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N59W PRODUCING
HIGH SEAS AND SWELL.  ANOTHER 1013 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 19N51W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 47W-51W.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 15W-47W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 74W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E ALONG
68W.  A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
25N51W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 45W-60W.  A RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
42W.

$$
FORMOSA






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