[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 16N52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 44W-52W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED HOWEVER.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 6N50W 6N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN
30W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING NOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE
SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SE INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
SEA.  WINDS ARE ANTICYCLONIC AT 5-10 KT.  NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED.  TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 55 F OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 73 F OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE S GULF S OF
THE LINE 26N80W 20N96W WHERE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY NLY SURFACE WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  SEE ABOVE.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 22N79W 18N84W 15N90W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  EXPECT  THE FRONT
TO GO STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 22N79W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1012 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N56W PRODUCING HIGH SEAS AND
SWELL.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N50W 29N56W 25N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 56W-60W.  A
1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N36W.  HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 75W.  A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E ALONG 70W.  A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N56W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN
50W-65W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 40W.

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net