[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...MOVING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N54W TO 22N57W TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 30N54W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN
48W AND 51W...PROBABLY MUCH MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND NOT
THERE BECAUSE OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 6N38W CURVING TO 10N50W...11N54W 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 44W. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION
IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS TROUGH
RUNS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND BEYOND SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
32N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W...CROSSING CUBA
ALONG 80W...INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA...IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 23N77W 28N75W BEYOND 32N73W. EVERYTHING IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N73W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR COVER THE
AREA EAST OF 70W...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE TROUGH GOES FROM 30N54W TO
22N57W...AND THEN TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
10N63W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. A 66W/67W TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DRY AIR...JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A COLD FRONT
CUTS ACROSS CUBA ALONG 80W AND ENDS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/NORTHERN
GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WEST OF 22N82W 18N83W 15N85W...FROM CUBA TO EASTERN
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...ARE
SOUTH OF 14N FROM 73W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS TROUGH
RUNS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND BEYOND 32N72W.
THIS RIDGE IS FOLLOWED TO THE EAST BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH STARTS OUT IN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR
30N54W AND EXTENDS TO 22N57W...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
DRY AIR IS MOVING SOUTHWARD...IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N TO 32N.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNDER THE RIDGE...FROM 10N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 55W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST WEST
OF SPAIN/PORTUGAL AND NORTHERN MOROCCO...OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MOROCCO.

$$
MT




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