[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED E OF THE
AXIS...FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 46W-50W...WITH UPPER WSW FLOW OVER
THE WAVE. A WIND SURGE IS ALSO BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 T0 15
KT. A WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
13N. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 81W IS NO
NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE AND WAS REMOVED FROM THE 1800 UTC SURFACE
MAP.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N30W 7N40W 12N48W 9N60W.
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ONE EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS EAST OF 42W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH
COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE CITY...WHERE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 22 KT WERE REPORTED. THE FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
THE SE U.S. INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO. A BAND OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT NORTH OF
26N. STRONG 20-30KT NW WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. A BIT LIGHTER SW FLOW IS AHEAD OF IT. HIGH PRES IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NICARAGUA. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT LIES OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC REACHES THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA.
THIS CONVECTIVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE SE GULF. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE
ABC ISLANDS AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND STALL BETWEEN
BELIZE AND CENTRAL CUBA TOMORROW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N78W THEN CONTINUES
SW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A BAND OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N WHILE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE SE COAST OF
FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE SE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SUPPORTS THIS
FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC  TO NEAR 32N70W AND BEYOND. THIS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SE U.S. MOVES
INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 26N58W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHES TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N THROUGH MUCH OF THE E ATLC...WITH AN
AXIS ALONG 35W. THIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER MOISTURE
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 42W-50W. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N40W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC. IN
BETWEEN...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEAR 29N52W. SCATTRED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE LOW CENTER. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER LAS PALMAS IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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