[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161207
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN
68W ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST AND THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND NOT WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W
AND 82W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE MAY BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
23N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...PROBABLY MOSTLY RELATED TO THE TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS ALONG
36W FROM 11N TO 32N. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 19N
BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 6N20W 7N30W 9N40W 12N47W 11N51W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
10W AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS GAINED A WHOLE LOT
OF STRENGTH...AND NOW IT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A....FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD. THIS DEEP
LAYER SYSTEM IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...
TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FRONT HAS BROKEN
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO START IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE REACHING AT LEAST 30 KT FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE GULF WATERS WEST OF THE FRONT...AND AT LEAST
20 TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE FRONT. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 89W AND 92W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N
TO 24N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.  SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
FLORIDA COMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
24 HOURS AGO NO LONGER COVERS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 80W...
AND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE JUST ENTERED THE EASTERN SECTION
OF THE AREA ALONG 61W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...ARE SOUTH OF 14N FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. IS SET TO HELP TO
RE-ENERGIZE THE ALREADY EXISTING WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA COMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. GET READY FOR THE FRONT TO HIT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT
THAT TIME. THE ORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME
STRUNG OUT WITH MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CENTERS FROM 28N TO 33N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS AREA TO
23N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS ALONG 36W
FROM 11N TO 32N. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W.

$$
MT


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