[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING AND A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE SEEN ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. A WIND SURGE IS ALSO BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
38W-44W. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS WAVE ON
FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. VERY SMALL AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N56W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE WAVE OVER GUYANA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 11N44W 12N57W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
48W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 200 NM
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 31W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS
BETWEEN 33W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF TONIGHT IS THE STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICAN COAST MIDWAY BETWEEN
TUXPAN AND VERACRUZ. THIS CITY IS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS OF 35
KT. A STRONG SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS AFFECTING
THE STATE OF GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS SQUALL LINE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE NE
CORNER OF THE GULF. A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING
JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SW FLOW IS AHEAD OF FRONT. NW WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ARE
BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NW GULF. THE FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING E/SE OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
WESTERN CUBA LATER. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT. THE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
AND IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM AN UPPER
HIGH LOCATED JUST W OF NRN COLOMBIA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION  ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ
AXIS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU...THEN IS FORECAST TO STALL
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS WILL BLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW QUADRANT
OF THE BASIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE BAHAMAS AND
THE W ATLC TO 32N72W AND BEYOND GIVING THE AREA VERY DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW
LOCATED NEAR 32N58W TO LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT LIES
ALONG 35W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE RUNS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO E CUBA AND THE W ATLC ALONG 20N...THEN CONTINUES
NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS NEAR 44N46W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW  TO THE
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC EAST OF 45W. IN BETWEEN...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS
NEAR 29N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE
SFC LOW. HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 50W FROM 9N-20N. A COLD FRONT
IS CROSSING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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