[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN BETWEEN HAITI
AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF PANAMA
SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. REMNANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A TROUGH DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS IS ALREADY IN THE
AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
8N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER THE 9N40W 15N35W
22N32W 26N26W 32N21W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN THIS
AREA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE RIDGE
ARE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
MIXED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 3N26W 10N44W 11N47W 10N54W 10N57W 10N62W. 8N13W 6N25W
11N44W 11N46W 12N53W 12N55W 10N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE 5N10W 5N15W 2N24W 6N29W 7N35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS ALL
OF TEXAS AND MEXICO NORTH OF 27N. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA COMPLETELY
BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 24N80W 22N90W AND 21N AT THE
MEXICO GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
88W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N44W
TO 25N48W TO 17N52W TO 9N56W AND 6N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME.
A 75W/76W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ
ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN FORTIFIED
BY THE ENERGY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO INTO THE AREA OF THE CAROLINAS
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 31N69W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF
24N80W 26N67W TO 31N/32N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N44W TO
25N48W TO 17N52W TO 9N56W AND 6N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N48W TO 27N47W 23N50W AND 19N57W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N
BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 9N40W 15N35W 22N32W 26N26W 32N21W.

$$
MT




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