[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS ARE CURVED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS WAVE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THIS CLOUDINESS. THE FLOW AROUND THE WAVE
MAY BE JUST PART OF THE TRADEWIND FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. PRECIPITATION
WHICH HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W
IS WEAKER NOW AND DISSIPATING IN SOME PLACES. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N48W TO 24N51W TO 16N57W TO THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...
AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
A RIDGE...CUTS ACROSS THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN
52W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER THE SAME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AS THE 50W/51W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 37W AND
41W...AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
12N15W 8N20W 7N24W 9N39W 9N43W 10N48W 11N52W 10N62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO
SOUTH OF 25N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN U.S.A...FROM NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO
24N51W TO 16N57W TO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
VENEZUELA. PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM
16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W IS WEAKER NOW AND DISSIPATING
IN SOME PLACES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE
ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N69W
TO 24N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOSTLY NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. SOME DRY AIR HAS MOVED SOUTH OF 30N TO 25N
BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO
29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 25N79W 26N72W 31N67W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
28N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N48W
TO 24N51W TO 16N57W TO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO 26N50W AND 22N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.
OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 9N47W TO 14N40W TO 23N37W
TO 32N25W.

$$
MT


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