[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 38W S OF 13N MOVING
W AT 10 KT.  LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10KT.
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS AGAIN NOTED.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE WAVE OVER NORTH VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 64W-69W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N20W 11N38W 9N43W 11N50W
9N60W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-17W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-35W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
53W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 32N91W.  WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5-10 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT A COLD
FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER N TEXAS TO BE OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE.
LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE SEA.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NRN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 69W-72W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N85W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 8N BETWEEN 70W-100W.  THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W
28N71W 25N78W.  A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N47W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N45W 27N43W 22N47W
19N51W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF
TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N48W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA.
A LARGE BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N OF
10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA










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