[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 47W S OF 15N ON THE
1200 UTC MAP BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA.
THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 45W-47W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC
SURFACE MAP ALONG 64W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT...BUT LATEST
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS PROBABLY
FARTHER WEST ALONG 67W/68W...WHERE A WEAK INVERTED V-SHAPE
PATTERN IS SEEN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE WAVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N30W 10N45W 11N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 28W-44W.
BASED ON UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR 36W/37W...WHERE SOME TURNING AND
A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE NOTED. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
INCLUDED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER
BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE GULF FROM A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS IN
THE EPAC CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE. WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
GULF IS BEGINNING TO WASH OUT WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. SMALL AREA OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST EARLY WED WITH NLY
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW
IS ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.
THIS FRONT PROMISES TO BRING TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS
INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...ENTERING THE REGION JUST SE OF
GUADELOUPE. ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF
THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER WHERE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INVADING THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A COUPLE OF
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER
THIS REGION. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE ELY
TRADE WINDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THESE
ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS BERMUDA. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR 30N50W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD
BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM
24N-31N BETWEEN 38W-44W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 31N70W...THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. A MID/UPPER
CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE MID ATLC
STATES N OF 29N IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
IS RELATED TO THE FRONT SOUTH OF 30N. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
DEVELOPING ALONG 35W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 34N/35N ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
GR







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