[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO FIND. SOME
EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD STILL IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N49W AND GOES TO 22N57W...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W...TO THE AREA
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N44W
14N50W 12N54W 12N60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS
MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER WITH THE ITCZ. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W...FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 83W.

...THE ITCZ...
9N11W 7N30W 10N40W 12N52W 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 40W...FROM 5N TO 13W BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO
INTO THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE IN WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SOUTH OF 20N. THE SOUTHERN END OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO 25N/26N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE END OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND THEN IT CURVES
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N49W AND GOES
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH 20N61W TO 17N63W...
TO THE AREA OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH
THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER...THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
WITH THE ITCZ. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
61W AND 70W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS
WEST OF 83W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W
TO 28N72W TO 21N70W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BEING SUPPORTED BY
THE 32N72W 21N70W TROUGH...PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N76W...
CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND ENDING NEAR 25N/26N
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N64W TO 26N68W 26N70W. A TROUGH ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N49W AND GOES TO 22N57W...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W...TO THE AREA OF THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 40W TO
AFRICA...EAST OF THE 32N72W 29N49W TO 17N63W TROUGH. A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N50W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM
30N50W AND CURVES TO THE 30N46W TRIPLE POINT. A WARM FRONT
CURVES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 27N42W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 23N487W AND 18N56W. THE STRATIFORM CLOUD
FIELD STILL HAS A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT TO IT NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN THE END OF THE COLD FRONT AND 20N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N
TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

$$
MT




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