[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-61W. WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SHEARING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TRINIDAD REPORTED HEAVY
SHOWERS AT TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 7N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
30N-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE U.S. AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS OF
1500 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FL
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEN CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE RELOCATED AND EXTENDS
FROM NEAR FT. MYERS TO 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N95W. QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING SWD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE GULF
FROM A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS IN THE EPAC ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ROSA AND SHORT-LIVED T.D. 20-E. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL ALLOW
SFC WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER E. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF WED WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY
WINDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN...ENTERING THE REGION JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO TO THE
ABC ISLANDS. ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF
THE BASIN WHERE THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS. A 1007 MB
SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N-77W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER
THIS AREA AT THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS PRETTY QUIET. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS BERMUDA. A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER CUT-OFF
LOWS ARE ALONG 30N...COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A
WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERNMOST ALONG 27N56W
21N62W...ENTERING THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1012 SURFACE LOW LOCATED
NEAR 30N51W TO 20N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR
HISPANIOLA. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WLY UPPER FLOW
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 28N BETWEEN 20W-50W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA TO AFRICA HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED BUT IS STILL PRODUCING A BROAD BAND OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

$$
GR







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