[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  LOW
AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED.
THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS MODERATE
TO STRONG SW-WLY WINDS ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THIS ONCE ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N30W 8N50W 11N58W 10N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
36W-46W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N87W 23N93W 22N98W.  15-20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 91W-95W.  A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR
25N87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NRN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
SUNDAY EVENING.  CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 73W-76W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 68W-77W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...WRN HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 88W-92W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AT 18N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND W OF 72W.  A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 12N.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 12N.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 28N52W 22N60W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTEND 120 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N24W TO
27N24W 22N27W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
24N-35N BETWEEN 17W-27W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 60W-70W.  MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E
OF 60W.  A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM  ORIGINATES
NEAR VENEZUELA AND RACES ENE TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. THE JET
IS HEAVILY SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE ITCZ CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA




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