[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MODERATE
TO STRONG SW-WLY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THIS ONCE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS
BARELY RECOGNIZABLE WITH ONLY A HINT OF SOME LOW CLOUD TURNING
ABOUT THE AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION OR ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N30W 7N50W 9N59W. THE ITCZ
AXIS APPEARS UNUSUALLY QUIET WITH NO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNIFORM ACROSS
THE GULF AS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E...NOW CENTERED ABOVE
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ERN SEABOARD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG IN THE NW GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS
STILL INLAND OVER SE TEXAS BUT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM A FEW TROPICAL LOWS IN THE EPAC...ONE OF
WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ROSA...ACROSS S AND CNTRL MEXICO AND
THE GULF MAINLY S OF 27N. THIS MOISTURE IS NOT A BIG WEATHER
FACTOR AS IT IS MAINLY UPPER LEVEL WITH THE 88-D'S ONLY SHOWING
A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF SW FLORIDA. THE SFC HIGH HAS ALSO
SHIFTED E OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM THE
E/SE ACROSS THE E AND MID GULF. THIS FLOW TURNS S-SWLY IN THE
WRN GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THRU THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY BECOMING
DIFFUSE AND STATIONARY ON SUN. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THE WEAK/MODERATE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL BELOW GALE CRITERIA.

CARIBBEAN...
THE CARIB REMAINS QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF DRY/
STABLE SINKING AIR ALOFT IN PLACE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
PRODUCING THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR 18N84W AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
HIGH E OF THE AREA. A WEAKNESS LIES ABOVE THE CNTRL CARIB
INDUCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE N/NE. THE ONLY SFC FEATURE ON
THE MAP IS A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS SIGNATURE AND WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED AT 06Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM N
AND W OF THE WEAK LOW. MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE IS IMPINGING ON THE
SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL JET AND THE
REMNANT MOISTURE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE MID-UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC.
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF THESE
RIDGES IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 55W HAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT ALONG 32N55W 23N65W THEN STATIONARY TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SINGS
OF CUTTING OFF...AS SUGGESTED BY GFS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
A WEAKENING OF THE SFC FRONT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE NARROW DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE PATTERN
THEN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
31N30W. THIS UPPER FEATURE HAS A RELATED SFC LOW WHICH IS
ANALYZED AT 1006 MB NEAR 29N31W. MOST OF THE WEATHER IS E OF THE
SFC LOW...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN
22W-26W...LINED ALONG A SFC TROUGH. E OF THIS LARGE LOW...LIES A
WEAK RIDGE ALONG 16W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...THE MAIN FEATURE IS
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WHICH ORIGINATES NEAR
VENEZUELA AND RACES ENE ALONG 15N56W 16N32W THEN NORTHEASTWARD
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF N AFRICA NEAR 21N17W. HIGHLY SHEARED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE JET AXIS.
UPPER CONFLUENCE W OF THE AXIS IS ENHANCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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