[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SURINAME AND GUYANA. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 8N50W 8N55W 8N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-140 NM NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-37W AND 44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE GULF COVERING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E
INTO THE ATLC AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX COAST LATE
TONIGHT. STRONG NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL INVADE THE NW CORNER
OF THE GULF ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE EPAC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE FROM A HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH E CUBA TO
JAMAICA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR
10.5N80W AND A TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-82W.
THE TROUGH RUNS FROM 17N82W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS STILL GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER E CUBA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF THESE
RIDGES IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 58W HAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT ALONG 31N57W 23N65W...THEN EXTENDS SW  AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTRED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 60W-68W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH GOES FROM 30N56W TO 25N59W. SCATTRED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N-31N AND
BEYOND. MID TO UPPER HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N52
EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG UPPER LOW
IS NEAR 30N30W. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW...REFLECTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N32W. AN OLD PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EAST
OF THE LOW GENERATING A BAND OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32W BETWEEN 24W-27W. MID/UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDS N THROUGH THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE DEEP
TROPICS AND EXTENDS NEARLY FROM BARBADOS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH
CLOUDS...INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE...FROM NORTHERN
VENEZUELA ALL THE WAY EAST AND NE THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE/CANARY
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL JETSTREAM.

$$
GR








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