[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DECREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SINCE YESTERDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND...AND NOW IS
MOSTLY W OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE OVER COASTAL SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 8N50W 8N55W 6N59W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING INTO SURINAME...SCATTERED MODERATE IS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 14W-18W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
36W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR AND PLEASANT WEATHER. THE
RIDGING CONTINUES TO SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM/DEEP LAYER TROUGHING MOVING INTO TX...WITH THE SE PORTION
OF THE TROUGHING BEGINNING TO CLIP THE NW GULF. A PLUME OF HIGH
CLOUDS/DEBRIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE THROUGH THE GULF FROM THE
WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DOWNSTREAM FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA IN THE EPAC AND HER COUNTERPART LOW TO
THE SW. A 1017 MB SFC HIGH HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. 10-20 KT RETURN SLY FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF...AS THE HIGH
OVER NE FLORIDA INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW FRONTS. SEE
MIAOFFNT4 FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTENSIVE DRY...STABLE...AND SINKING AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY MENTIONABLE WEATHER OCCURRING IS IN THE SW
PORTION OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR 11N81W...WHICH MAY BE
TRANSITIONING INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE
PANAMA CANAL TO FAR ERN HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EPAC
EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM A HIGH
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER COL REGION NOTED BETWEEN THESE RIDGES S OF HISPANIOLA.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW
PORTION THAT EXTENDED FROM ERN CUBA TO BELIZE WAS ANALYZED AS A
TROUGH AT 1200 UTC BUT REMOVED AT 1500 UTC WITH LITTLE IF ANY
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE REMAINING. 10-20 KT TRADES EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIB AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGHER WAVENUMBER...THOUGH VERY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN AS
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST OF THESE RIDGES IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST/NE GULF ALSO BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
SATURDAY. QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 60W HAS AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ALONG 32N59W 25N64W THEN EXTENDS SW TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 22N58W 27N58W
31N56W...MARKED BY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL SW INTO SE FLOW. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THIS AXIS. MID TO
UPPER HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N53W HAS RIDGING
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NORTH ATLC. ASSOCIATED 1032 MB SFC HIGH
IS NOW CENTERED WELL E OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA AND EXTENDS S TO
18N50W. PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW NEAR 29N32W HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS
A 1008 MB LOW IN A SIMILAR PLACE. CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THIS
WITH AN OLD PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
25N-34N BETWEEN 25W-29W. MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS N THROUGH THE
W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND EXTENDS
NEARLY FROM BARBADOS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED WLY
FLOW IS STRETCHING THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION TO
THE E.

$$
WILLIS






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