[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A QSCAT PASS AT 2120 UTC. THIS WAVE IS
ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE QSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 20 KT
UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THERE ARE LIKELY
STRONGER WINDS IN THE CONVECTION HOWEVER MOST OF THESE ARE
RAIN-FLAGGED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS DERIVED UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOWS 30-40 KT SLY AND SWLY WINDS SHEARING SOME OF THE
CONVECTION AND STRETCHING HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE N/NE. THIS WAVE
WILL BE MOVING W INTO A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N30W 8N42W 6N55W. BESIDES FOR
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 38W-46W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. VERY STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE GULF E OF 87W. THIS
SINKING AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A 1014 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N86W IS PRODUCING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
WRN GULF IS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR WITH DEBRIS TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM RECENTLY DOWNGRADED T.D. ROSA SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WRN GULF AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE EPAC AND PULLING NWD TOWARDS THE SRN STATES BY A SHORTWAVE
OFF THE TX COAST. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS MAINLY UPPER LEVEL
WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AS SHOWN BY
DOPPLER RADAR FROM SE TEXAS. MOISTURE MAY THICKEN A LITTLE IN
THE WRN GULF FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE
OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE
IT WILL BE VERY STRONG BUT IT MAY INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY
THIS WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
WEAK BENIGN FEATURES. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS STALLED FROM ERN CUBA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE
COAST OF BELIZE. THIS PART OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH
THE BOUNDARY ONLY MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF
PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION OR EVEN THICK
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. NIGHT CHANNEL IR IMAGES AND
QSCAT WINDS DO SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE WINDS BUT THIS MAY
BE BETTER REPRESENTED AS A PORTION OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE...VERY
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY
TWO UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS. ONE UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE EPAC
WITH RIDGING STRETCHING EASTWARD TO 75W. THE OTHER IS LOCATED IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH RIDGING STRETCHING TO 70W. A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN 70W-75W INDUCED BY A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
TO THE N. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE ATLC
BASIN. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 36N65W TO
THE SE BAHAMAS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
32N64W 24N70W TO ERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
...PATCHES OF COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXIST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES E OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
21N52W WITH RIDGING COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-65W. SOME
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED AROUND THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...N OF 26N. THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
QUICKLY THINS OUT S OF 26N IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. A
PRONOUNCED TROUGH LIES E OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 31N34W SWD TO 20N33W THEN SHARPLY TO THE SW NEAR
15N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG
32N31W 20N40W 24N60W. A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE ALONG 32N27W 24N30W...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF 26N. THE ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH HAS SET UP A TROPICAL JET WHICH ORIGINATES NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THIS JET IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING ENERGY WHICH IS
ENHANCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W AND SPREADING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NE. SEE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ SECTIONS FOR
INFO. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SE OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 18W/19W
OVER THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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