[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS AND MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ...FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
46W-52W. THE WAVE IS S OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
SHEARING THE HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE
TO THE NE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 8N43W 8N48W TO THE
FRENCH GUIANA COAST NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE COAST FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO
NE VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE SE U.S
FROM AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ON THE EPAC SIDE. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO MOVING EWD. DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM T.S. ROSA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND
THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR/DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 28N86W WITH A
RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. INCLUDING THE STATE OF FLORIDA.  THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING ENE TOWARDS THE W ATLC  DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION
OF THE GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. SLY RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
TONIGHT.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED ON THE EPAC
DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ANOTHER UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE AIR IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND
INSTEAD IS MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS. THIS FEATURE WILL
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N78W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE
ATLC OCEAN. FROM W TO E...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OFF THE MID
ATLC EAST COAST AND DIPS SW INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT HAS USHERED VERY DRY/PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER TO THE STATE OF FLORIDA ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N66W
THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION
OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM OCEAN ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. PATCHES ON MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN AROUND 200 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
RIDGING EXTENDING NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW IS
NEAR 32N36W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW INTO THE DEEP
TROPICS NEAR 14N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH ALONG 32N31W 22N40W 21N56W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH GOES
FROM 31N28W TO 17N38W. A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM 26N-31N. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 26N. STRONG UPPER HIGH
REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 19W/20W OVER THE MADEIRA/CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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