[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE SIGNATURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N29W 9N40W 7N48W 9N54W
10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 27W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SE US WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR WILMINGTON AND COVERING THE GULF N
OF 21N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1014
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF IS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER W TEXAS AND
CENTRAL MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA NW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N88W AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 78W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO COVERING THE
E CARIBBEAN. THUS...REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER
CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W USHERED
IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER HIGH
OVER PUERTO RICO EXTENDS A RIDGE N OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N63W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N FROM
62W-72W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W S ALONG 18N45W THEN WSW TO
12N53W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N36W S ALONG 26N40W THEN W TO 23N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N FROM 30W TO THE FRONT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N
W OF 40W INTO THE E HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 38W-54W. STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC W
OF 32W.

$$
WALLACE




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