[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 TO
15 KT. CLEAR CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD
FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 35W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH LITTLE CYCLONIC TURNING
NOTED NEAR THE AXIS PLACEMENT...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS BASED ON
CONTINUITY. THERE IS ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
NEAR THE WAVE FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 9N42W 9N52W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN WAKE OF THE
WAVE ALONG 39W FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 20W-35W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF REMAINS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SE PORTION. THIS WAS REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY
TO THE NW ON THE 1500 UTC MAP...DUE TO THE ROPE CLOUD SEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE NEW PLACEMENT EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO A POSITION
JUST N OF THE YUCATAN...ALONG 25N81W 21N92W. THIS PLACEMENT
SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY WELL...ALONG
WITH THE WIND SHIFT BETWEEN SE FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE RADAR
DATA AVAILABLE IN THE SE GULF/FL STRAITS SHOWS -SHRA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION LIMITED TO
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...MORE ALIGNED WITH THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WEAK 1014
MB SURFACE HIGH IS OFF THE TX COAST NEAR 27N94W AND WILL MOVE E
THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH TOMORROW. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID
TO UPPER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGHING/LOW OVER THE SE US. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
THE FAR NW GULF FROM ITS HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA.
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TD 19-E IS STREAMING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH WLY UPPER FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH A COUPLE OF CENTERS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY...ONE NEAR NE
NICARAGUA AND THE OTHER JUST SE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS E OF 75W
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST
OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 75W-83W. AT THE
SURFACE...AS OF 1500 UTC...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALIGNED
BETWEEN WRN CUBA AND BELIZE ALONG 22N80W 18N88W. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 100NM OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WAS
REPOSITIONED JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE
GULF SECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...10-20KT TRADES DOMINATED E
OF 75W ON THE SW PORTION OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. SIMILAR TRADES
WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AS FRONT IN NW PORTION BECOMES DIFFUSE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SE
US CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SW NORTH ATLC. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEEPEST
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA...FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 65W-76W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
ANALYZED IN THIS REGION ALONG 23N76W 30N72W. THIS REGION ALSO
SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGHING
OVER THE SE US AND THE RIDGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE ALIGNED BETWEEN ERN CUBA AND 32N68W BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN ASSOCIATED OLD COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ALONG
32N39W 24N49W...AND IS STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 23N65W.
THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100NM OF THIS
BOUNDARY BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. N OF THIS FRONT LIES A
1027MB SFC HIGH NEAR 41N56W. E OF THIS FRONT IS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ALONG 30N32W 21N42W...THOUGH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE
LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

$$
WILLIS




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