[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 8N-11N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N27W 8N40W 9N51W 8N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
20W-44W AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SE US WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER N
ALABAMA COVERING THE GULF N OF 23N FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM WEST PALM BEACH CAPE SABLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND THE SE
GULF TO OVER W CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DRY CONTINENTAL AIR HAS FILTERED OVER THE
GULF W OF THE FRONT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR THIS
MORNING WITH A 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. BROAD UPPER
SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N84W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR
18N90W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-83W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SE US IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N
OF 25N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
32N79W CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 70W. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG RIDGE IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 25N FROM 67W-74W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 38W-58W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THE REGION NEAR 32N41W SW TO
25N50W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT W ALONG 23N65W
THEN NE TO 26N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 44W-58W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 30N26W
MOVING RAPIDLY NE OUT OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N32W TO 22N41W.
STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N26W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC
S OF 23N W OF 42W.

$$
WALLACE





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