[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
3N-16N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N19W 9N38W 8N44W 9N51W 8N60W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
2N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE SE US WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NE
ALABAMA COVERING THE GULF N OF 24N FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM JACKSONVILLE TO TAMPA INTO THE SE GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT
MOSTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR HAS FILTERED OVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR TONIGHT WITH A 1015 MB
HIGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BROAD UPPER SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 19N W OF 75W AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 75W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER
CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE SE US WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 68W AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 72W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 40W-60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N43W SW TO 25N51W WHERE IT COMES UP STATIONARY TO
23N65W AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT TO 28N73W...IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SE
US. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 45W-60W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E NEAR
28N29W AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 33N31W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N34W TO 25N40W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE
W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 45W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 25W-32W.
STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N27W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC
S OF 23N W OF 40W.

$$
WALLACE




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