[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG
35W/36W SOUTH OF 16N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA.
THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SHAPE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 70-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N50W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N25W 7N34W 7N45W 8N60W.
OUTSIDE FROM THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE 4N-6N BETWEEN 15W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...THE NW PORTION OF
THE GULF AND NE MEXICO MOVING EAST. THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 21N97W TO
29N83W. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST NE OF TAMPA BAY ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DOPPLER RADAR
DEPICTS A LINE OF TSTMS ALONG 26N83W 27N82W...INCLUDING THE
TAMPA BAY AREA. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING NE FLORIDA.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W GULF ON
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH THE UPPER HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS E CUBA THANKS TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS PRETTY QUIET.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLC
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 72W. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 40W-60W. THE
ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR 31N45W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 25N55W 23N70W. THE
TAIL END ON THE FRONT IS MOVING NWD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N67W TO
27N72W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 25N33W AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N30W 26N36W WHERE
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OF 1011 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE
AREA FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 28W-35W. STRONG UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N25W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 23W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS BETWEEN 30W-40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA.

$$
GR







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