[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N15W 8N23W 6N31W 9N48W 8N60W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE 3N-10N BETWEEN 11W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 85W MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER
NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED BENEATH THE UPPER FLOW NEAR 27N90W WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF N OF
22N E OF 87W TO ACROSS FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN
ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 18N FROM 73W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N W OF 76W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER
CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 75W. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 42W-64W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N46W SW TO 25N55W WHERE IT COMES UP STATIONARY TO OVER TO
HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 23N FROM 64W-70W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E
NEAR 25N37W AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 29N34W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 32W-39W. STRONG UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC
JUST OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N24W WITH A RIDGE
COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 30N W OF 35W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N E
OF 32W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE





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